Letters from NYC

Guest Blogger - Jon of We Swear

This post was an email I received as part of an offline conversation with my blog-bro, Jon of We Swear (whose blog is currently down due to technical difficulties). In our discussion, I stated my reasons why Rudy Giuliuni's chances for becoming president are non-existent. In my opinion, the 6 marriages alone, between him and his current wife Judith, are enough to kill his chances. Since I was pressed for blog-fodder and found some of his arguments compelling, I've posted it here in its entirety with his permission.

Voting Trends and Rudy's Chances

First, there are several groups of Presidential voters in this country;
- The Non-Voters (who will never vote)
- The May-Voters (who vote if they’re really motivated - note that Republicans, Democrats, & Centrists/Libertarians/Independents may be in this group)
- The Centrist / Libertarian / Independent (CLI) Voters (are swing voters, who vote for either Republicans or Democrats depending on the issues of the day)
- The Democrat Voters (always vote their party line, and usually vote)
- The Republican Voters (always vote their party line, and usually vote)
(There may be others... [but I agree w/Jon are few in numbers and therefore inconsequential to his point])

Who will vote for Rudy vs other candidates and why?
The Republicans and CIL’s voters will put National Security *way* (^10) above other issues.
The Democrat voters will only look at who is supporting their personal (pet) issues.

The "swing" - if you will - are the Republicans & CLI’s. They will support a Democrat if: a) The Republicans are really weak, b) The Democrats are really good, or c) National Security is not an issue. Most people don't want to have the FedGov actively involved in their life. Democrats do a pretty good job of that. Even the moderate Right Wing (which is different than Repub's) have a "leave everyone alone to live their lives as they see fit, God will decide their fate" attitude.

History has shown that a president who is active overseas will be active domestically. He will interfere with people's day-to-day lives and Republicans generally do that. So in order for a Republican to be elected, (against a strong Democrat) he has to be the type that people (Republicans & CLI’s) believe will not interfere with their way of life while supporting National Security.

Republicans are a very forgiving bunch. I'd bet that nearly every R has a friend who has been re-married. And they are still friends. It isn't an "exclusionary" issue. Neither is adultery. While it is still bad, it isn't something that causes a person to exclude them from their life - like lying or stealing. Those things get you kicked out of a friendship. Relationships? Na. That's private stuff and Republicans & CLI’s don't judge like that.

I predict Rudy will succeed because he crosses the bridge that Republicans, CLI’s and some Democrats see as allowing him to be "acceptable". Remember, in a two-party system, the one who wins is the "lesser of two evils". He will be that.

A very important chunk of voting comes from the second group above, the "May-Voters". Within that are all three of the Democrats, Republicans, and CLI’s. They follow politics but need a "motivation" to vote. They skew polls because they claim to be "likely to vote", but the usually don't. In this election, their motivation to vote will come from the two candidates - some a pull towards, some a push away. The pull towards is the Republicans who love Rudy and the Democrats who love Hillary (yes, she will come out of the DNC as the candidate). The push, however, is going to be a huge motivator. And it will be against Hillary. I've seen polls (yes, the polls I just said were skewed) where 45% of the likely voters would vote just to *oppose* Hillary. That's a _huge_ number. Even if it is skewed by a factor of 10, it is still 5% of the voters who will vote for whoever is running against Hillary. And 5% would have been decisive in the last two elections.

As always, the primary determinant between the R and the D will be which party gets their "base" out to vote. With the Electoral College the way it is (and that's a good thing), the Republicans will have more areas voting on the basis of National Defense than the Democrats will on their disparate issues. And with Rudy being the strongest imaginable on National Defense, he's got a huge chunk right there. If you throw in that he supports many things that CLI’s and "may-vote" Democrats have (abortion, gay marriage) - heck and even the personal issues of many Democrats - he's going to win.

The issues you bring up may be a problem for him with the far-Right. But they are *huge* pulls for people from the center, center-left, and even into the middle-left. And those three groups are much bigger than the far-right.

I'm not saying he will be a _great_ president, I'm just predicting he will be our _next_ president.

Posted by Michele at March 22, 2007 08:06 AM