This is a response to a post from distinguished journalist, Juan Hervada, which can be found at NetWar04. His commentary is a must read, if you want to understand how Europeans and the various groups within Islam view us. He writes in various languages including English, however, a simple translation at Babel Fish will help you understand everything he writes.
Hi JH,
These are a number of the reasons why Bush was pulling ahead in the polls prior to the convention, and Kerry was floundering.
It can mostly be attributed to the Swift Boat Vets advertising. They were just too powerful and damning of an indictment on the "strong Commander in Chief" image Kerry presented during his speech at the convention. Too many veterans are still angry over being called monsters, baby killers, murderers all thanks to John Kerry and his accusations. They also remember his flamboyant press conference in which he threw all of his medals in the harbor. Of course later, Kerry admitted he threw out all but the most valuable 2 medals on that day.
There just too many of his former Swift Boat crewmembers (19) who contradicted Kerry's story and that of his 3 supporters. There's also the question whether or not he really won 2 of his purple hearts. Among Kerry's critics is his former Swift Boat Commander who said he never saw nor signed the purple heart citation. Pentagon documents show it's a rubber stamp (a lot of humor could be used here).
When Kerry never responded to the ads directly, actually he still hasn't, the ads started to take on a life of their own. He just let them be out there... and they were out there, nationwide for over a week. Even more momentum was built up when they began to give talk show interviews in groups of 3 or 4.
Most importantly, Kerry's campaign was being hurt by a lack of a strong cohesive strategy. What's influencing their strategy? Two things, first, he chose to fill his team with tier 2 people instead of top experienced campaign strategists. Second, the Heinz Diva who holds the purse strings. She was basically telling campaign staffers to zig when they should have zagged and the good minions that they were, they obeyed.
According to press reports Monday, Kerry took time off from the campaign (3rd time he's done so since April) "to regroup and re-strategize". In the middle of that he fired his top key advisors and strategist and replaced them with many of Clinton's former team. This shows tremendous weakness in contrast to Bush. When Bush vacation’s at his ranch in Texas we still see him holding meetings and giving press conferences and meeting with dignitaries. When Kerry takes time off, he’s skiing, windsurfing or on the beach. Don’t even get me started with poor Edwards.
As for the strong Republican showing in the polls this week, you must credit the "DNC Rapid Response Team" at the convention for that. They really looked weak and ineffective. Key mistakes made: an example is how quickly they responded to a few items in Miller's message and not the overall tone. It was the same thing that happened last night when Kerry came out at midnight for a special rally to respond to the president's speech. What was his strongest comeback? His Vietnam service, the very service which is being called into question in spite of McCain and Bush, saying that’s not a nice thing for these veterans to do.
Behind the Dems rapid response strategy was the thinking that they would be taking momentum away from powerful speakers with a rapid response, but instead they looked like a kid in the playground kicking dirt on a pitcher that has thrown you out of the game (sorry, I couldn't come up with a soccer analogy). Here the difference is discernable. When post convention Kerry was doing just slightly better after the convention, Bush simply waited for his turn at bat, and let those players preceding him hit the balls out of the park. Bush came in simply to end the game.
For Kerry, the midnight rally was one that had an air of desperation. The setting, the visuals, the message, and it's timing were totally mismatched and extremely ineffective. He looked like a pale ghostly beggar, who was not allowed to have a seat, let alone to share from the feast at the banquet.
He should have learned from the republicans who virtually did their own thing, during the democratic convention while the republicans campaigned in swing states without responding directly to the Dems speeches.
Finally, there is also the Teresa Heinz Diva factor. She is being captured by the media at her absolute worst moments. Disheveled, slurring her speech (after a long liquid lunch), and being condescending, obnoxious and overbearing towards members of the press. That's a bad move, to behave that way towards journalists who wield so much power. This is in stark contrast to the sweet, demure, well-coifed and perfectly poised Mrs. Bush.
I’d say, things won’t be looking to bright for Mr. Kerry anytime soon, unless, that is, we suffer another terrorist attack on American soil.
As always, you are doing some amazing posting! Thanks.
Michele
Probably about as good of a summary as I'll ever read anywhere.
Nice work :-)
Posted by: Harvey at September 4, 2004 08:33 AM